A Ship Without a Captain: A survey of possible Republican presidential candidates for 2008
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As many know, 2008 will be the first election since 1952 that a sitting President or Vice President will not be running for the oval office. This, in turn, opens up the question of who will be the Republican standard bearer after Bush leaves office. A non-exhaustive list includes Condi Rice, John McCain, George Allen, Bill Frist, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Pence. Though it is obviously too early to make accurate predictions, some of these potential GOP candidates have already begun to separate from the pack.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has repeatedly said she will not run for office, but her name continually appears in any mention of prospective candidates. Still seen in a positive light by many in the party, some feel that, as a woman and a minority, Condi has the best shot to defeat Hillary in 2008. However, she may have other counter-acting liabilities. It is speculated that Condi is somewhat moderate socially, which may lose her some votes in the primary, but likely would not hurt her too much in the general election. A far more critical issue is that her main source of name recognition is the Iraq war. Though her involvement has given her an intimate understanding of the conflict and its challenges, she would likely be forced into defending the administration’s policy throughout her entire candidacy, turning the election into a single-issue referendum on the war.
Several senators have also been mentioned as potential candidates. Foremost among these is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Well-known as a moderate, McCain has lately attempted to move to the right, with varying success. In his 2000 presidential run, he was able to upset Bush in states with open primaries, but was demolished in primaries where only Republicans were allowed to vote. This performance signaled his strong appeal to swing-voting moderates and independents but his weakness in courting conservatives. He further alienated the Republican base by his tepid support for President Bush in the ’04 election. This time around, McCain has attempted to gain favor with both camps—moderates and conservatives—with varying success. In a telling move, Sen. McCain recently spoke at the commencement of Liberty University, a Christian-affiliated school. Conservatives, however, came out to protest his connection to the Kennedy-McCain Immigration Bill—seen by many as de facto amnesty. The senator’s role in this debate has convinced many among the conservative base that he has not changed. To them, he has now become weak on taxes—having been one of only a handful of Congressional Republicans to vote against Bush’s tax cuts—and on immigration. Still, his early canvassing, good organization, and high name-recognition have been great benefits thus far. Robert Novak reports, “McCain is unquestionably the early front-runner for the nomination.”
Another senator near the front of the pack is George Allen (R-VA). A reliable conservative, the American Conservative Union (ACU) has given Allen a 100% rating for 2005 and a 92% rating for his career. The senator has seemed to fade from the spotlight lately, however, and must get more attention and project a positive image if he is to remain a major candidate.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) has also been mentioned as having presidential aspirations. However, it appears less and less likely that Frist can capture the GOP nomination. Time and again, he has shown signs of ineffective leadership, allowing Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to run circles around him. Novak reports that Reid has become the most powerful Senate leader since LBJ, partly due to Frist’s passivity. After almost fumbling away many of Bush’s judicial appointments, Sen. Frist has done a poor job getting Senate Republicans to agree on immigration reform, letting an important issue turn into a disaster for Republicans in a vital election year. Frist has not only broken with the base over immigration, but has also announced his support for increased stem cell research—not a winning stance for cultural conservatives.
Sam Brownback (R-KS) is well-known as one of Congress’s staunchest defenders of social conservatism. Yet, he too has drifted left in the immigration debate, potentially derailing an ‘08 run. Human Events reports “Immigration for the Reagan conservative movement is quickly becoming a litmus test issue, every bit as much as the issue of abortion already is. McCain fails on both accounts. And even though Brownback is considered strongly pro-life, his visible position at the center of the immigration compromise may well disqualify him among conservatives for serious support as a presidential candidate in 2008.” If their assessment is correct, Brownback’s campaign may be over before it gets started.
On the other side of the immigration debate is Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO). Leader of the House Immigration Reform Caucus, Tancredo has gained nationwide recognition and considerable support among conservatives. However, Tancredo is often characterized as a Pat Buchanan-style conservative, supportive of protectionism and favoring a more isolationist approach to foreign policy; these positions do not dovetail well with mainstream views on the right. Moreover, Tancredo’s potential campaign rests largely on one issue. Such a candidacy would only work well if the 2008 elections become a referendum on immigration.
Several governors also are mentioned among possible candidates. Perhaps the best known of these is Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL). Always a reliable conservative, Bush has proven himself an effective and popular leader in his home state. Besides areas like hurricane disaster control and the economy, Bush has a stellar job in reforming education, moving Florida near the top in school performance. In fact, Bush spoke eloquently about education reform earlier this year to the Hoover Institution; The Stanford Review was the only paper permitted to attend. Currently, Bush’s biggest drawback is the name association with his older brother—not his best asset at the moment.
Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), another cultural conservative, is also rumored to be in the running. On many issues, Huckabee is a champion of social conservatism. Lately, however, Huckabee may have strayed away from economic conservatism, advocating a raise in the minimum wage. This episode led to an unfortunate quarrel with the powerful Americans for Tax Reform, headed by former Rep. Grover Norquist (R-PA). By alienating himself from such groups, Huckabee may have resigned himself to the Vice Presidential slot at best.
Of the governors in the race, Mitt Romney (R-MA) is far and away in the lead. He has recently been canvassing around the country, electrifying people coast-to-coast with his charisma, causing his stock to soar in certain circles. Romney faces an uphill battle, however. One particular obstacle is his Mormonism, which may alienate many non-Mormon conservatives. On top of his religion, Romney tends to lean left on social issues. Many fear that he is a Massachusetts Republican in the worst sense of the term. Moreover, Massachusetts recently passed a universal health care bill that is expected to be a policy failure. Columnist Michael Lewis writes, “At first glance, the much-heralded Massachusetts reform uses free-market principles to universalize healthcare. Upon reading the actual bill, the Wall Street Journal reported May 5 that the well-intentioned bill is actually a death warrant for small business in the Bay State.” Emplacing certain regulations on businesses once they reach ten employees, bigger companies would be better able to pay such fixed costs, while small firms lack the resources to comply with such laws and remain as competitive. Instead, these businesses have an incentive to stay at under ten employees and will therefore fail to grow. Thus, Romney may yet lose the support both business and social conservatives.
Several former politicians are also possible candidates. Among these is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani is well-liked and has a reputation as strong on national defense, but is fairly liberal on many social issues. He may instead make an interesting choice for Vice President, casting a positive image and keeping homeland security a major talking point.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA) may yet arise as a major candidate. With few conservatives establishing themselves thus far, Gingrich has the potential to fill that void and capture the nomination. Now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Gingrich recently began a new weekly column where he tackles many policy issues and continues to remain relevant in current debates. He has also devoted much attention lately to handling the Iranian deadlock. The architect of the 1994 Republican Revolution, Gingrich has proven himself an effective leader and a true conservative, giving him a solid reputation on which to rest.
Though he has not tipped his hand as to his intentions, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) is a potential darkhorse in the race. As the head of the powerful Republican Study Committee, Pence has garnered very high approval ratings on the right. Many even encouraged him to run for Majority Leader when Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) resigned. Even though he lacks national name recognition, he has potential to capture a significant bloc, as he describes himself as, “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order.” He also holds a 100% lifetime rating from the ACU. Like Gingrich he may take advantage of the conservative vacuum.
Though still at a narrow stage, many of the moderates, such as McCain and Romney, appear to be pulling ahead. Whether or not the conservative wing can pull ahead before the primary election is yet to be seen. In any case, the winner of this open field may determine the short-term future of the GOP and provide a glimpse into its future.
