The Rise and (Possible Fall) of John McCain
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While few Republicans would claim that anything good came out of the 2006 Election, one key party member managed to gain quite a bit: Senator John McCain. Just three days after the Republicans lost control of Congress, McCain announced the creation of a 2008 Election “exploratory committee”--bank account and all. While the Senator from Arizona has long appeared interested in a 2008 bid, the committee is his most serious step yet. Then, on November 11th, Senator McCain stood before the Federalist Society and GOPAC (a key Republican political committee) to offer his interpretation of the recent election results. America had not embraced the Democrats, he said, but, rather, rejected the Republicans; the GOP had been complacent, financially reckless, power--hungry, overly partisan, and even “uncivil.” He then called for “common sense conservatism.” But McCain was not simply reflecting on current events. Rather, by diagnosing the Republicans’ illnesses, Sen. McCain had implicitly offered himself as the antidote.
In the span of just a few weeks, the “maverick” senator has charged to the forefront of the 2008 Republican contenders. But what can we really make of McCain’s chances to capture the 2008 Republican nomination? His popularity at this nascent stage is undeniable: 29% of Americans, according to a recent Pew Reasearch poll, want McCain to be the Republican nominee in 2008. He maintains the advantage over such big names as former-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Newt Gingrich, and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. But the timing and scope of the poll does not tell the whole story.
McCain occupies a vulnerable moderate position that fully pleases neither Republicans nor Democrats. Most importantly, Senator McCain has not won the hearts of the very conservative branch of the Republican Party. His position on campaign finance reform, immigration, judicial nominations and some social issues – not to mention his positive relationship with much of the “elite liberal media” such as The New York Times and The Daily Show-- has made McCain a tough sell to many staunch conservatives. Recently, though, he has tried to remedy this situation by highlighting some of his conservative positions. McCain no doubt learned from 2000 that he must court the Right in order to win. He does not, for instance, support gay marriage (only a form of civil union), nor the abolition of the “don’t ask don’t tell” military policy. In May, he even addressed Rev. Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University, reaching out to the very evangelical Christians that snubbed him in 2000 (His talk at Liberty, one of the most conservative universities in America, later prompted hostility at his speech to the New School, one of the nation’s most liberal universities). Moreover, he has also grown closer to President Bush, becoming a vocal advocate of the war in Iraq. McCain even helped Bush campaign in the last Presidential election.
Despite this steady drift to the Right, McCain’s main support still comes from independent and moderate voters. In 2000, his iconoclastically-titled bus, “The Straight Talk Express” seemed to strike a chord with the American people (or at least the American media). But much has changed in just eight years. Can he win over conservatives while maintaining his moderate base? That will ultimately be the question in the 2008 Election. Many moderate voters, for instance, likely approve of his role in “The Gang of 14” to create a moderate solution to the potentially messy judicial stand-off in 2005. On the other hand, many conservatives most likely do not look back fondly on his judicial compromise. Senator McCain has also called for the deployment of even more troops in Iraq in hopes of providing stability in that nation. While this agenda may please Bush supporters, will it appeal to an Iraq-wary America? Perhaps McCain’s more moderate and pragmatic brand of conservatism will ring true to voters tired from eight years of lofty moral rhetoric and epic abstract struggles. In the end, however, by trying to please everybody, McCain may end up pleasing nobody.
Finally, McCain’s personal life will become campaign fodder if he chooses to run. On the positive side, McCain’s status as war hero is widely admired. His five and a half year internment in Vietnam creates authoritativeness on defense issues that other politicians cannot compete with. Nonetheless, the Arizonan Senator has a few potential personal issues. Foremost among these problems is his age. McCain will turn 72 in 2008, making him the oldest Presidential candidate ever. Additionally, his history of melanoma seems to mark a poor state of health. Can we take the risk of a premature death in office? Additionally, McCain’s role in the Keating Five cannot be easily forgotten. Much speculation and criticism will no doubt arise concerning McCain’s improper acceptance of money in exchange for legal leniency during the late 1980’s (Ironically--or conveniently--the McCain-Feingold Act of 2002 was the first major campaign finance reform act following the Keating Five scandal). All these issues will be dragged out and hotly debated if McCain chooses to run.
So, in the aftermath of a massive Republican defeat, Senator McCain has managed to emerge from the rubble unscathed. Indeed, McCain has even emerged invigorated and emboldened. He has used the opportunity to define new goals and priorities for his weakened party. But will they stick? Has McCain become the new torch-bearer for the Republicans? Can he win over the hearts of the entire conservative spectrum? How much momentum can he maintain for the next year? There is no doubt that his new 2008 Election “exploratory committee” is asking these very same questions as we speak.
