The Democrats’ filibuster-proof lead in the Senate was shattered yesterday as State Senator Scott Brown (R) defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) in a Massachusetts Special Election to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat. With 99% of precincts reporting, Brown is leading Coakley 52% to 47%, and Coakley has conceded. On January 10, the Boston Globe reported Coakley in the lead by 15% over Brown, so what in the world happened? 
Massachusetts Democrats can claim the White House didn’t provide adequate support and the White House can allege that Coakley ran a weak and disorganized campaign. But in the end, Brown’s victory stems from a strong shift in political climate away from Democrats toward Republicans, especially among voters identifying as Independents. President Obama’s ambitious domestic agenda has undoubtedly alienated independent voters in favor of principles of limited government and low spending and taxes. No single item on his agenda, except maybe health care, convinced them to vote for Brown – it was instead the perception that President Obama is attempting to directly control and make changes in every major sector of government in his first year, from the auto industry to health care to education and so on. (For more on this, see David Brooks’ article on this topic).
The issue of health care clearly played an important role in Brown’s victory. However, this special election should not be considered a referendum on health care reform, as Senator Webb (D-Va.) claimed several hours before. Former Governor Mitt Romney passed health care legislation in Massachusetts that effectively provided universal health coverage to residents of Massachusetts. Indeed, Massachusetts’ health care legislation is often considered a model for the current national health care reform proposals in Congress. Thus, residents of Massachusetts would not see significant benefits from passing national health care legislation, but would have to suffer the cuts in Medicare and the additional taxes. So Massachusetts’ residents have more reason to oppose health care reform than individuals from other states around the country.
So what exactly does Brown’s victory mean going forward? For Democrats, it means that the situation regarding the 2010 Midterm Elections is far worse than they thought. For Republicans, it means that the situation is far better than they thought. Republicans are thinking about re-capturing a majority in the House and winning Senate races in seats like California and elsewhere. Democrats are scrambling to devise a strategy that doesn’t end with a Republican House and a greatly diminished majority in the Senate. To follow up on this victory, Republicans must solidify their message and offer concrete solutions of their own to counter Obama’s agenda. To stem the blood loss from this special election, Democrats must begin to remake their marred image and try to regain the support of the countless Independents that have gone to the Republican side.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Good, succinct post on a critical event. I wasn’t sure we’d ever see Massachusetts vote for a Republican again!
Love,
An Independent who, under the current Administration, ardently supports Republicans
Thanks, I tried to keep it strictly to analysis. My personal view is that the Democratic Party, especially in the last few months, has become further out of touch with a significant portion of Americans; and I don’t just mean the extreme right and tea-party supporters but swing independents as well (as we saw in Massachusetts).
I am a Democrat ideologically aligned with much of the President’s agenda, and I am worried about how this election will affect the current legislative agenda. But I am starting to think it could serve a more important purpose in awakening the democrats before it is too late (November Midterms) to the extreme perception issue they are facing. The party of change has become the party of spending and bailouts and taxes. Only a huge public relations campaign focused around a new more moderate health care reform proposal and a job creation bill can help Democrats salvage the midterms and avoid a tea party sweep.