Stanford announced recently that it had accepted a record 753 early applicants for the class of 2014, out 5,556 that applied (that’s a 13.5 percent acceptance rate). Historically, Stanford has sent out a total of approximately 2,400 acceptances, early action included, to fill a class of a bit less than 1,700. Last year it had 30,429 applicants total. Assuming that there are approximately the same number of acceptances (note: this is a generous assumption; since the yield on early decision applicants is probably 85-95 percent, they may well offer less) and a similar number of total applicants (we’ll call it 25,000 that aren’t early action), regular decision applicants are looking at these odds:
=(Total acceptances-early acceptances)/(total applicants-early acceptances)=(2400-753)/(30,556-753)
=.0553=a 5.3 percent acceptance rate
Now, if we run calculations using another formula, this time using a historical yield of 70 percent and an assumed early action yield of 90 percent (note, I’m just guessing here (maybe it’s lower), but I can’t really see a whole lot of people going elsewhere after getting in to Stanford early), aiming to fill a freshman class of 1700 we get:
=(inverse historical yield*(total class-(early yield)*(early acceptances)))/(total applicants-early acceptances)=((1/.7)(1700-(.9)(753)))/(30556-753)
=.049=a 4.9 percent acceptance rate
Either way, it looks like those candidates that do make it in will have truly run the gauntlet. Oh, and for a little perspective, if my second calculation were right, that would be ~2213 acceptances out of 30556 candidates, or a net acceptance rate of 7.24 percent. Just two years ago, when I was accepted, the rate was 9.49 percent. It’s getting harder every year.
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Despite the regular decision acceptance rate being lower than the early action rate, the early action round may be just as competitive as the regular decision round since a majority of athletes, minorities, and legacies are accepted early. I’d guess that only half of the early action acceptances go to your average overachieving applicants.
Either way, congrats to the Class of 2014 early admits! It’s one hell of an achievement.
Good point, Brendan. I mostly just did this for fun (yeah, I’m that cool) after I saw the huge number of early acceptees. I agree that the most qualified applicants likely apply early, so another “overqualified” applicant applying later will still have fair odds.
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