The Tory Tragedy: A Warning to The Trump Administration
In 2010, the Tories rode into power on a wave of hope and optimism following a landslide electoral win. After 14 years of abysmal governance, however, its overwhelming defeat in 2024 gave the world a masterclass on squandering a historic mandate.
Similar to the GOP’s current trifecta, the Tories had everything an incoming government could hope for after their 2010 triumph: a hefty majority in the legislature with a popular mandate for reform.
Looking back, after a series of poor decisions spanning five prime ministers over a decade and a half of Conservative leadership, the UK finds itself faced with one of the worst economic downfalls in modern history. With the new Trump administration taking office, there are a few key missteps that America should be careful to avoid copying from the British.
To get a sense of just how dire the economic situation in the UK is, let's put this collapse in perspective. British real wages in 2024 sat below 2008 levels—a level of stagnation not seen since the Napoleonic Wars. Meanwhile, food bank usage exploded from 26,000 people to over 3 million, an 11,900% increase. GDP-per-capita is about GBP 11,000 (~USD 13,700) lower than what it would have been if pre-2008 growth trends continued–the slowest growth rate of any major economy besides Italy. In the 2024 election, these conditions led voters to overwhelmingly favor the Labour opposition, in what was widely viewed as a rejection of conservative governance.
The Tories’ woes begin with their abysmal handling of energy policy. Despite access to North Sea gas reserves, they pursued a net zero fantasy that sent energy bills skyrocketing 55% and food prices up 25% between 2022 and 2024 alone. Because energy prices factor into nearly every economic process, this error spiked cost of living expenses for British citizens, worsening post-COVID economic woes.
The 2016 Brexit Referendum, however, may be the clearest example of the Conservatives’ failure to act on their campaign promises. Voters who put their trust in Boris Johnson's push for Brexit were rewarded with weak border controls, record tax hikes, and diplomatic incompetence, despite Tories possessing the requisite political power to advocate for better policy. The Conservative government's handling of Brexit negotiations resulted in a deal that failed to secure favorable trade terms with the European Union, created a contentious situation on the Northern Ireland border, and sent UK exports plummeting.
The party that was once the face of“Iron Lady” Thatcherite conviction has devolved into a collection of castrated empty suits, trying to appease the world with bureaucratic half-measures.
It may be tempting to dismiss this as irrelevant to a currently charged-up and unapologetic Trump administration. However, the Tory government had a strikingly similar attitude in the first few months after taking office. In June 2010, David Cameron proclaimed that his administration would change Britain’s “whole way of life” for a generation and that his coalition “has the potential for era-changing, convention-challenging, radical reform”. The Economist even described the Tories as “The West’s most radical government”. The cautionary lesson here is that even the most strong-willed governments can end up watering down their agendas under sustained pressure over time.
The Tories faced all the same hurdles that afflict the GOP: a hostile bureaucracy, overbearing regulations, and prevailing mainstream media opposition. Even if the Republican base remains energized, Trump is still faced with executing his agenda through a federal bureaucracy where 95% of employee donations go to the Democrats. In the first year of his first term, Trump faced over 20 injunctions, more than Obama did in his entire eight years. Trump is not immune from such forces, and the Tory trajectory illustrates how momentum can go astray when confronted by institutional hurdles.
Conservative governments fail and lose power, not for being too bold, but rather too timid in their execution. It is one thing to make big promises and another to deliver on them in a way that overcomes institutional barriers. The prescription for American conservatives is clear: Delivery over rhetoric. The new Trump administration, for all its energy, has faced some challenges when it comes to this principle. The executive order attempting to repeal birthright citizenship was blocked by the courts, as were multiple other executive orders. The newly unveiled “Gold Card” plan, for example, which proposes selling permanent residency for a $5 million price tag, would require an act of Congress, despite Trump’s suggestion to the contrary. The plan was intended to replace the existing EB-5 Investor Visa program, but there is virtually universal agreement that the President can’t unilaterally axe the program. Ultimately, this is likely to be a case of bold promises and underwhelming execution. If the administration hopes to translate its ambitious agenda into policy, it needs to have plans to surmount predictable institutional roadblocks.
The Tory tragedy offers a clear choice to the American right: Bold action or managed decline. Republicans must look beyond simply winning the midterms. Instead, they ought to demonstrate that conservative governance can deliver prosperity and stability at a time when other right-wing parties have failed to do so across the world. The Tory Party’s abject failure must serve as a rallying cry for an unapologetic American renewal.